An evidence-led approach, tested against the past.
Methods are examined the way conclusions are: with explicit evidence, point-in-time discipline and a stated way to be wrong.
Point-in-time reconstruction
To ask whether a consequence would have been knowable, the past has to be rebuilt without leaking the present into it. An AS OF view excludes later evidence and preserves the assessment state that existed at that moment.
Historical replay
Validation discipline
Reasoning is exercised over retained historical events, so behaviour can be inspected rather than asserted.
An AS OF view is reconstructed using only evidence available before its cutoff. Later evidence is excluded.
Each conclusion records a falsifier, the evidence that would contradict it, so it can be challenged directly.
Source identity, references and observation times are retained, so a claim can be traced to what it rests on.
Pyrnova is early. This page describes the research approach and the disciplines applied to it. It does not claim predictive accuracy or a published benchmark result.
An evaluation tests Pyrnova against a real external change affecting your organization.
See the company-specific consequence, the evidence behind it, the uncertainty it keeps visible and the point in time it was knowable.